Gold and US shares are likely to outperform

Gold and US shares are likely to outperform

August FX Seasonality Overview:

  • O eighth month of the 12 months normally sees a blended efficiency of the US greenback.
  • The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are likely to do nicely in August, whereas the Australian and New Zealand {dollars} do poorly.
  • August was a great month for each gold costs and US shares.

The start of the month deserves a assessment of the seasonal patterns which have influenced the foreign money markets in recent times. cease august, our focus is on the previous 5- and 10-year returns, which seize each exchanges throughout the unwinding of aggressive central financial institution intervention that started with the 2008/2009 international monetary disaster, not in contrast to the atmosphere we discover ourselves in now.

Nevertheless, as has been the case over the previous 5 months, ongoing ahistorical situations scale back the reliability of utilizing seasonality as a significant indicator of worth motion. In spite of everything, international commodity markets stay distressed amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and international provide chains proceed to grapple with China’s zero-covid technique. We should conclude that methods primarily based on seasonal developments are nonetheless much less viable than in previous years.

Month-to-month Foreign exchange Seasonality Abstract – August 2022

Euro Foreign exchange Seasonality (by way of EUR/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US stocks tend to outperform

August is to blended up month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5 years, it was the fifth worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a median lack of -0.04%. Over the past 10 years, it was the fifth finest month of the 12 months, with a median acquire of +0.14%.

Foreign exchange Seasonality in Sterling (by way of GBP/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US stocks tend to outperform

August is to bass participant month to GBP/USD, from the angle of seasonality. Over the previous 5 years, it was the fourth worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a median lack of -0.46%. Over the past 10 years, it was the third worst month of the 12 months, with a median lack of -0.33%.

Foreign exchange Seasonality in Japanese Yen (by way of USD/JPY)

Monthly Forex Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US stocks tend to outperform

August isa bearish month cease USD/JPYfrom the angle of seasonality. Over the previous 5 years, it was the fifth worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a median lack of -0.59%. Over the past 10 years, it was the fifth worst month of the 12 months, with a median lack of -0.19%.

Australian Greenback Foreign exchange Seasonality (by way of AUD/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US stocks tend to outperform

August is to bass participant month to AUD/USD, from the angle of seasonality. Over the previous 5 years, it was the fourth worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a median lack of -0.52%. Over the past 10 years, it was the third worst month of the 12 months, with a median lack of -0.85%.

Foreign exchange Seasonality in New Zealand Greenback (by way of NZD/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US stocks tend to outperform

August isa bassist month to NZD/USD, from the angle of seasonality. Over the previous 5 years, it was the second worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a median lack of -1.65%. Over the previous 10 years, it was the second worst month of the 12 months, with a median lack of -1.69%.

Canadian Greenback Foreign exchange Seasonality (by way of USD/CAD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US stocks tend to outperform

August is to blended up month to USD/CADfrom the angle of seasonality. Over the past 5 years, it was the sixth finest month of the 12 months for the pair, with a median lack of -0.08%. Over the past 10 years, it was the fifth worst month of the 12 months, with a median acquire of +0.11%.

Foreign exchange Seasonality in Swiss Franc (by way of USD/CHF)

Monthly Forex Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US stocks tend to outperform

August is to bass participant month to USD/CHFfrom the angle of seasonality. Over the previous 5 years, it was the fourth worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a median lack of -0.67%. Over the past 10 years, it was the fifth worst month of the 12 months, with a median lack of -0.26%.

Foreign exchange Seasonality within the US S&P 500

Monthly Forex Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US stocks tend to outperform

August isa bullish month cease the US S&P 500from the angle of seasonality. Over the past 5 years, it was the sixth finest month of the 12 months for the index, with a median acquire of +2.24%. Over the past 10 years, it was the fifth worst month of the 12 months, with a median acquire of +0.74%.

Foreign exchange Seasonality in Gold (by way of XAU/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US stocks tend to outperform

August is to bullish month to gold (XAU/USD)from the angle of seasonality. Over the previous 5 years, it has been the sixth finest month of the 12 months for the dear steel, with a median acquire of +1.86%. Over the past 10 years, it was the second finest month of the 12 months, with a median acquire of +2.02%.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategistt

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